Opposition contention of Region 10 unemployment rate erroneous PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 05 August 2012 19:34
One of the primary reasons the Lindeners are touting  their refusal to honour any increase in electricity tariffs – even minimally as proposed by the government- is that Linden is a badly depressed community with an extremely low employment rate and consequential lack of affordability.
However, statistics provided by the Private Sector Commission Technical Bulletin and cross-checked with the Bureau of Statistics and IMF/WB for consistency, as follows, prove otherwise.
Between 1970 and 2002 Guyana’s unemployment rate fluctuated between 11.7 and 16.8 percent. During the protracted economic crisis of the 1980s, the unemployment rate stood at 16.8%. In 2002, a study done by the Private Sector Commission (Technical Information Bulletin No. 4, April 2007) showed that the Region 10 unemployment rate stood at 15.2% while Region 8 was 19.5%. Now consider the analysis below:

Sensitivity Analysis
If based on historical trends, we put the current unemployment rate at 16.8%, equal to that of the 1980s and if we maintain the regional unemployment rates at base, the following holds:

Est. Labour Force 2011 = 289,000
Est. Unemployment Rate 2011 (16.8%) = 48,704

Region 10 Labour Force 2002 = 14,164
Region 10 Unemployment rate 2002 (15.2%) = 2,146

From 2002, total population grew on average at 0.3% per annum. Though highly unlikely, if the total and regions’ labour force grew at the same rate, then: Region 10 Labour Force 2011 (0.3% per annum) = 14,683

If everyone who joined the labour force since 2002 in Region 10 is still without a job, this implies that in Region 10: Number Unemployed in 2011 is (2,146 + (14, 683 – 14, 164) = 2,665

Therefore the Region 10 unemployment rate as of 2011 (2665/14683) is 18.15%

Not that it is next to impossible for the unemployment rate to be above 18.75, noting the overly pessimistic assumption underlined above.
Now there are other communities countrywide that have unemployment and poverty, but they are required to pay in full for their consumption of all utilities. During the protest one could not help but notice the brand name clothing, shades, footwear; the well-coiffed hair and the well-fed looks of the protesters.
The claims of neglect are false and the Prime Minister and other government functionaries have time and again highlighted the many interventions government has been making to make that community self-reliant so as to be brought in line with other communities in the country.  The electricity tariff hike was long impending and government felt that this was the right time. Granger initially agreed, only to renege on his agreement when the AFC’s Ramjattan and Nagamootoo ran to destabilize the PNC’s hold on that community by accusing Granger of “selling out” Linden. The rest is history.
One wonders how long the rest of the country will be asked to carry Linden on its back like the legendary albatross. Can an economy such as Guyana’s sustain this? Certainly development will be tremendously slowed down if the status quo regarding electricity rates in Linden is restored.
The government is caught between a rock and a hard place , being blackmailed with the hinterland, mining communities and even the law-abiding residents being held to ransom by the protesters, who change their reasons for protesting daily, even as government makes one concession after another;and one wonders when it will stop, and when it will start again.
Certainly the road to Brazil has to bypass Linden if this scenario is not to be played out ad infinitum in the future, with dire consequences for social development and economic growth in the nation.
Last Updated on Sunday, 05 August 2012 19:35
 

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